Job Market Paper:

The Aftermath of the Anti-communist Purge on Demographic Transition in Indonesia

(With Muhammad F. Wahyu & Muhammad R. Sanjaya)

Presented at: World Bank, Malaysia; ESPE, Naples; ifo Dresden, Germany; AIEL, Milan.

Abstract:
The 1965–66 anti-communist purge in Indonesia, resulting in an estimated 500,000 to one million deaths, had profound social and economic repercussions. This paper examines its impact on demographic transition in Java by exploiting regional variation in Communist Party vote share from the 1955 election. Utilizing the 2010 population census and a two‐way fixed‐effects event‐study design, we document a delayed, approximately ten‐year after the genocide in the number of births in PKI stronghold municipalities. We show that this decline is driven predominantly by reduced marriage rates, which may operate through discriminatory government policies that limited economic opportunities for Communist Party descendants. Although cohort replacement and lower out‐migration in these areas partially mitigate the number of births drop, the overall effect remains sizable. We further demonstrate that local political contestation, specifically between the Communist Party and Islamist parties, mediated these outcomes. Our findings highlight how large‐scale political violence can disrupt family formation and alter population dynamics, with long‐term implications for labor supply and economic development in post‐conflict societies.

Keywords: Partai Komunis Indonesia; Conflict; Genocide; Fertility; Marriage; Migration.
JEL: D74, J12, J13, R23.

Selected Working Papers:

Exposure to Communal Conflict and Earnings

(With Traheka Bimanatya)

Abstract:
We estimate the long-run labor effects of childhood exposure to the Poso communal conflict between Christians and Muslims in Indonesia, a large-populous democratic Muslim country. Using a difference in differences design that exploits municipality of birth and cohort timing around the 2004 conflict stabilization, we find that individuals born in Poso and exposed in childhood earn about 50 percent less than comparable cohorts in control municipalities. Mechanisms indicate worse health, especially for men, with no detectable losses in educational outcomes. Early migration is selective and concentrated among minorities. These findings clarify that health scarring and selection, rather than schooling losses, are the primary channels and extend the evidence on the long run consequences of conflict to a large middle-income setting.

Keywords: Communal Conflict; Poso Riots; Labor Market.
JEL: D74, I15, I25, J31, O15.

Education, Religious Segregation, and Interfaith Marriage

Presented at: Alp-Pop, La Thuile; EEA Congress, Bordeaux.

Abstract:
Interfaith marriage represents the highest level of social cohesion between religious groups, fostering cooperation and integration between majority and minority communities. However, in traditional societies, such unions are often discouraged or even prohibited by families with conservative religious beliefs. This research examines the role of education in breaking the barrier of interfaith marriage using the case of Indonesia—a predominantly Muslim nation with a history of religious conflicts. Leveraging data from a large-scale school construction program, my study investigates the causal impact of an education expansion program on interfaith marriage. My exercises reveal that the program significantly increased the likelihood of interfaith marriages, primarily by reducing objections to such unions within Muslim communities. This shift in perceptions is largely driven by an increase in interfaith trust rather than changes in individual religiosity and interfaith tolerance. The analysis suggests that expanding educational opportunities can promote social cohesion, even in societies prone to interfaith conflict.

Keywords: Education; Interfaith Marriage, Intermarriage, SD Inpres, Indonesia.
JEL: I25, I28, J12, J15.

Publications:

• Anindita, A., & Sahadewo, G. A. (2020). Lighten the Burden: Assessing the Impact of a for-Poor-Students Cash Transfer Program on Spending Behaviour. The Journal of Development Studies, 56(7), 1367–1383. [LINK]

Work on progress:

• Political Scapegoating and Family Formation among Ethnic Minorities

• Identity, Marriage, and Family Dynamics (with Hafizha Iftina)

• Answering the Prejudice towards Communist Descendants (with Hafizha Iftina, Muhammad R. Sanjaya, & Muhammad F. Wahyu)

Other Works:

• Patience and Intention of Having More Children: A Causal Evidence from Indonesia (with Silvana Robone & Ariadna Garcia-Prado), under review.
  Presented at: IMEBESS, Lisbon; SIEP, Verona.

• Educational Reform, Labor Market Outcomes, and Family Formation in Italy (with Simona Comi, Mara Grasseni, & Federica Origo). draft available by request.
  Presented at AIEL Conference 2024 in Naples & AEDE Conference 2025 in Milan (forthcoming).

• Improving Low-Quality Private Schools’ Performance through Public-Private School Collaboration (with Silvana Robone, Ariadna Garcia-Prado, Totok Amin Soefijanto, & Qonita Beldatis Syafiqo). draft available by request.

Previously circulated with a different title: When Public and Private Collaborate: The Impact of the Sekolah Kolaborasi Program on Student’s Achievement. Presented at RGS Doctoral Conference 2024 in Essen, IAAEU 13th Workshop on Labor Economics in Trier, Workshop on Networks and Development 2024 in Naples (poster).

• Expanding Health Insurance Coverage through Fully Subsidized Health Insurance Policy (with Ariadna Garcia-Prado, Silvana Robone, Gumilang Aryo Sahadewo, & Giovani van Empel). under review.

Presented at EuHEA Conference 2024 in Vienna & EuHEA PhD Conference 2024 in Lucerne.

• The Untold Story of Cohabitation: Marital Choice and Education Investment (with Gumilang Aryo Sahadewo, Milda Irhamni, & Randi Kurniawan)

Presented at: IRSA, Yogyakarta; Forum Kajian Pembangunan.