Job Market Paper:

The Aftermath of the Anti-communist Purge on Demographic Transition in Indonesia

(With Muhammad F. Wahyu & Muhammad R. Sanjaya)

Presented at: World Bank, Malaysia; ESPE, Naples; ifo Dresden, Germany; AIEL, Milan.

Abstract:
The 1965–66 anti-communist purge in Indonesia, resulting in an estimated 500,000 to one million deaths, had profound social and economic repercussions. This paper examines its impact on demographic transition in Java by exploiting regional variation in Communist Party vote share from the 1955 election. Utilizing the 2010 population census and a two‐way fixed‐effects event‐study design, we document a delayed, approximately ten‐year after the genocide in the number of births in PKI stronghold municipalities. We show that this decline is driven predominantly by reduced marriage rates, which may operate through discriminatory government policies that limited economic opportunities for Communist Party descendants. Although cohort replacement and lower out‐migration in these areas partially mitigate the number of births drop, the overall effect remains sizable. We further demonstrate that local political contestation, specifically between the Communist Party and Islamist parties, mediated these outcomes. Our findings highlight how large‐scale political violence can disrupt family formation and alter population dynamics, with long‐term implications for labor supply and economic development in post‐conflict societies.

Keywords: Partai Komunis Indonesia; Conflict; Genocide; Fertility; Marriage; Migration.
JEL: D74, J12, J13, R23.


Selected Working Papers:

Christian-Muslim Conflict in Indonesia: What Can We Learn?

(With Traheka Bimanatya)

Abstract:
Religious conflict is common worldwide and often harms minority groups. This study evaluates how violence between Christian and Muslim communities, the Poso riots, in Indonesia affected family formation and labor market outcomes. Using a two-way fixed-effects event-study design to evaluate the causal impact of the riot, we find that: (1) There is a contribution of economic inequality between Christian group and Muslim group in the conflict, shown by the higher asset level owned by Muslim communities before the conflict started; (2) Conflict exposure reduces the share of Muslim babies births when the conflict escalated, with the largest declines for female births, driven by an increase in migration; (3) Long-term negative impact on labor market productivity among those who were exposed to the conflict during their childhood. Overall, our findings indicate that violent conflict confers no benefits for either party, with disproportionate harm to minority populations, and decreases long-term economic performance of those who were affected.

Keywords: Religious Conflict; Poso Riots; Fertility; Migration; Labor Market.
JEL: D74, J13, J24, O12, Z12.


Education, Religious Segregation, and Interfaith Marriage

Presented at: Alp-Pop, La Thuile; EEA Congress, Bordeaux.

Abstract:
Interfaith marriage represents the highest level of social cohesion between religious groups, fostering cooperation and integration between majority and minority communities. However, in traditional societies, such unions are often discouraged or even prohibited by families with conservative religious beliefs. This research examines the role of education in breaking the barrier of interfaith marriage using the case of Indonesia—a predominantly Muslim nation with a history of religious conflicts. Leveraging data from a large-scale school construction program, my study investigates the causal impact of an education expansion program on interfaith marriage. My exercises reveal that the program significantly increased the likelihood of interfaith marriages, primarily by reducing objections to such unions within Muslim communities. This shift in perceptions is largely driven by an increase in interfaith trust rather than changes in individual religiosity and interfaith tolerance. The analysis suggests that expanding educational opportunities can promote social cohesion, even in societies prone to interfaith conflict.

Keywords: Education; Interfaith Marriage, Intermarriage, SD Inpres, Indonesia.
JEL: I25, I28, J12, J15.


Publications:


Work on progress:


Other Works:

Previously circulated with a different title: When Public and Private Collaborate: The Impact of the Sekolah Kolaborasi Program on Student’s Achievement. Presented at RGS Doctoral Conference 2024 in Essen, IAAEU 13th Workshop on Labor Economics in Trier, Workshop on Networks and Development 2024 in Naples (poster).

Presented at EuHEA Conference 2024 in Vienna & EuHEA PhD Conference 2024 in Lucerne.

Presented at: IRSA, Yogyakarta; Forum Kajian Pembangunan.