Job Market Paper:

The Aftermath of the Anti-communist Purge on Demographic Transition in Indonesia

(With Muhammad F. Wahyu & Muhammad R. Sanjaya)

Presented at: World Bank, Malaysia; ESPE, Naples (forthcoming); AIEL, Milan (forthcoming); ASEAS, Cambridge (forthcoming).

Abstract:
The 1965–66 anti-communist purge in Indonesia, resulting in an estimated 500,000 to one million deaths, had profound social and economic repercussions. This paper examines its impact on demographic transition in Java by exploiting regional variation in Communist Party vote share from the 1955 election. Utilizing the 2010 population census and a two‐way fixed‐effects event‐study design, we document a delayed, approximately ten‐year after the genocide in the number of births in PKI stronghold municipalities. We show that this decline is driven predominantly by reduced marriage rates, which may operate through discriminatory government policies that limited economic opportunities for Communist Party descendants. Although cohort replacement and lower out‐migration in these areas partially mitigate the number of births drop, the overall effect remains sizable. We further demonstrate that local political contestation, specifically between the Communist Party and Islamist parties, mediated these outcomes. Our findings highlight how large‐scale political violence can disrupt family formation and alter population dynamics, with long‐term implications for labor supply and economic development in post‐conflict societies.

Keywords: Partai Komunis Indonesia; Conflict; Genocide; Fertility; Marriage; Migration.
JEL: D74, J12, J13, R23.


Working Papers:

Education, Religious Segregation, and Interfaith Marriage

Presented at: Alp-Pop, La Thuile; EEA Congress, Bordeaux (forthcoming).

Abstract:
Interfaith marriage represents the highest level of social cohesion between religious groups, fostering cooperation and integration between majority and minority communities. However, in traditional societies, such unions are often discouraged or even prohibited by families with conservative religious beliefs. This research examines the role of education in breaking the barrier of interfaith marriage using the case of Indonesia—a predominantly Muslim nation with a history of religious conflicts. Leveraging data from a large-scale school construction program, my study investigates the causal impact of an education expansion program on interfaith marriage. My exercises reveal that the program significantly increased the likelihood of interfaith marriages, primarily by reducing objections to such unions within Muslim communities. This shift in perceptions is largely driven by an increase in interfaith trust rather than changes in individual religiosity and interfaith tolerance. The analysis suggests that expanding educational opportunities can promote social cohesion, even in societies prone to interfaith conflict.

Keywords: Education; Interfaith Marriage, Intermarriage, SD Inpres, Indonesia.
JEL: I25, I28, J12, J15.


Patience and Intention of Having More Children: A Causal Evidence from Indonesia

(With Silvana Robone & Ariadna Garcia-Prado)

Presented at: IMEBESS, Lisbon; SIEP, Verona.

Abstract:
This study examines the impact of time discounting on fertility preferences. Using randomized treatment status from a large experimental survey on patience in Indonesia—a populous, Muslim-majority country—as an instrumental variable, we address bias from reverse causality and analyze how patience influences women’s fertility decisions. Our findings reveal no overall effect of patience on women’s fertility preferences. However, among mothers with at least one child, patience positively affects the preference for additional children, primarily driven by a stronger desire for sons. This effect is more pronounced in rural areas, with no significant impact on the preference for daughters. These results suggest that prior childbearing experience plays a critical role in shaping the relationship between patience and fertility preferences, highlighting the importance of individual traits and contextual factors in fertility behavior.

Keywords: Time Preference; Patience; Fertility; Family Planning.
JEL: I25, I28, J12, J15.


The Untold Story of Cohabitation: Marital Choice and Education Investment

(With Gumilang Aryo Sahadewo, Milda Irhamni, & Randi Kurniawan)

Presented at: IRSA, Yogyakarta; Forum Kajian Pembangunan.

Abstract:
Cohabitation is common in eastern Indonesia due to the high costs of marriage. However, only some studies in the literature investigate the impact of cohabitation in a developing country context. In addition, there is a limited study on the effect of cohabitation on child development and the mechanism of the effect. This study analyzes the effect of cohabitation on households' human capital investment in education, which is an essential determinant of children's future outcomes. We contribute to the literature by explaining the mechanisms of how marital choice affects child outcomes. We use an instrumental variable approach—with the gender of the child before marriage as the instrument—to identify the causal effect of cohabitation on household educational investment and child cognitive skills. We use a unique dataset from the 2012 Indonesian Family Life Survey East. Cohabitation led to a lower child's cognitive score by 0.288 standard deviations. One of the primary explanations for this result is that cohabited couples spent a lower share of spending on education. Cohabiting couples allocated a lower share of expenditure for education by 4.4 percentage points compared to married couples.

Keywords: Cohabitation; Marriage; Education; Cognitive Ability; Child Development.
JEL: J12, J13.


Publications:


Work on progress:


Other Works:

Previously circulated with a different title: When Public and Private Collaborate: The Impact of the Sekolah Kolaborasi Program on Student’s Achievement. Presented at RGS Doctoral Conference 2024 in Essen, IAAEU 13th Workshop on Labor Economics in Trier, Workshop on Networks and Development 2024 in Naples (poster).

Presented at EuHEA Conference 2024 in Vienna & EuHEA PhD Conference 2024 in Lucerne.