Arif Anindita
Postdoctoral Research Fellow
University of Milano-Bicocca, Italy
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Contact Information:
Department of Business and Law, University of Milano-Bicocca, Via Bicocca degli Arcimboldi 8, Milano 20126, Italy
Email: arif.anindita1@unimib.it
Phone: +39-3917459964
Biography
Biography
I am a postdoctoral research fellow in the Department of Business and Law at the University of Milano-Bicocca, Italy. My research focuses on family formation and its intersection with conflict and education. In my job market paper, I am studying how the anti-communist purge in 1965-1966 affected the demographic transition in Indonesia. I am also working on several ongoing projects, observing how conflict and identity influence family formation and labor market outcomes. Prior to academia, I served as an education and social policy analyst at the Governor's Delivery Unit in Jakarta, Indonesia.
Please find my CV here.
Education
PhD in Methods and Models for Economic Decision, 2025
University of Insubria, Italy
MSc in Economics and Finance, 2021
University of Naples Federico II, Italy
BSc in Economics, 2017
Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia
Fields of Interest
Family Economics
Economics of Conflict
Development Economics
Job Market Paper
The Aftermath of the Anti-communist Purge on Demographic Transition in Indonesia
(With Muhammad F. Wahyu & Muhammad R. Sanjaya)
Presented at: World Bank, Malaysia; ESPE, Naples; ifo Dresden, Germany; AIEL, Milan.
Abstract:
The 1965–66 anti-communist purge in Indonesia, resulting in an estimated 500,000 to one million deaths, had profound social and economic repercussions. This paper examines its impact on demographic transition in Java by exploiting regional variation in Communist Party vote share from the 1955 election. Utilizing the 2010 population census and a two‐way fixed‐effects event‐study design, we document a delayed, approximately ten‐year after the genocide in the number of births in PKI stronghold municipalities. We show that this decline is driven predominantly by reduced marriage rates, which may operate through discriminatory government policies that limited economic opportunities for Communist Party descendants. Although cohort replacement and lower out‐migration in these areas partially mitigate the number of births drop, the overall effect remains sizable. We further demonstrate that local political contestation, specifically between the Communist Party and Islamist parties, mediated these outcomes. Our findings highlight how large‐scale political violence can disrupt family formation and alter population dynamics, with long‐term implications for labor supply and economic development in post‐conflict societies.
Keywords: Partai Komunis Indonesia; Conflict; Genocide; Fertility; Marriage; Migration.
JEL: D74, J12, J13, R23.
Find my research here.
Contact Information:
Department of Business and Law, University of Milano-Bicocca
Via Bicocca degli Arcimboldi 8, Milano 20126, Italy
Email: arif.anindita1@unimib.it
Phone: +39-3917459964
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